Polymarket traders now assign a 65% probability that Bitcoin BTCUSD drops to $50,000 this year, after a hot inflation reading sent the token to its lowest level since September 2024.
The odds for lower targets have risen recently, signaling that traders now see a deeper drop as likely.
Hot Inflation Triggers the Selloff
Bitcoin slid to about $58,100 on Thursday, its lowest level since September 2024. The move tracked a hotter-than-expected inflation print.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 4.1% year over year in May 2026.
The core gauge, which excludes food and energy, reached 3.4%. The figure further dented the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
The repricing flushed out leveraged positions across exchanges. More than $1.26 billion in crypto positions were liquidated across 209,000 traders.
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Polymarket Odds Turn Sharply Bearish on Bitcoin
Meanwhile, trader sentiment also shifted. On Polymarket, the probability that Bitcoin falls to $50,000 this year rose to 65%. The nearer $55,000 target carried an even higher conviction at 77%.